As the nation digests the results of this week’s general election, we at Novus Public Affairs are considering how the New Hampshire policy landscape could be impacted. At the state level, we saw Republicans claiming significant victories all down the ballot. While this will no doubt be a boon for key policy areas, there are some important nuances that could temper Republicans’ ability to immediately capitalize on these recent wins. Today we’ll be taking a deep dive to see how this election will affect the balance of power in New Hampshire government.

New Hampshire Legislature

Republicans were able to protect and expand their slim majority in the New Hampshire House this election cycle. Coming into the general election, Republicans held the slimmest majority in modern New Hampshire history: just 201 Republican House seats to 199 Democratic House seats. Republicans have increased that majority to 222 seats, giving them a more comfortable hold on the New Hampshire House. This wider margin will undoubtedly embolden advocates for conservative and business causes.

In the Senate, New Hampshire Republicans held onto the seats they currently had and ousted two incumbent Democrats. This will give them a supermajority for next year. This stronger, more conservative majority, along with a new Senate president, will provide ample runway for right-leaning policy proposals.

Governor and Executive Council

The election of Republican Kelly Ayotte will ensure that bills passed by the Republican controlled General Court can make it across the finish line. During her campaign, Ayotte avoided policy specifics with a few notable exceptions—namely, her promises to oppose any new taxes and to leave the current law on abortion where it is now. The best clue from her campaign about how she will govern is her repeated commitment to keep New Hampshire on the “Sununu Path.” We take this to mean focusing on center-right policy initiatives and prioritizing fiscal discipline in Concord.

The New Hampshire Executive Council will remain a 4-1 Republican majority. This will help Ayotte as she begins to fill important roles in state government and perhaps even looks to fill a supreme court vacancy should one occur.  Since the governor does not serve conterminously with state commissioners, Ayotte won’t be appointing many new ones right away. In the first quarter, however, she will have the choice of keeping New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella or replacing him with someone else.

Policy areas to watch

We have several policy areas we’re keeping a close eye on as we approach the next legislative session. These are topics that have already yielded hot button legislation in recent years, but with the Legislature and Governor’s office firmly in Republican control, we expect to see more action on these issues.

Housing affordability

Housing was a big part of the discussion on the national level during the recent campaign cycle, and particularly in New Hampshire; the Granite State has been especially impacted by the lack of affordable housing. In recent years, Republicans and Democrats have had differing visions of how to address these problems. Democrats have favored requiring municipalities to modify their zoning laws to accommodate greater density. Republicans prefer incentivizing builders to increase the supply of affordable homes. Given the decisive victory of the GOP this election, it is likely we will see more of the market-driven approach.

Marijuana Legalization

For many, recreational marijuana legalization in New Hampshire is not a matter of “if” but “when”. House Majority Leader Jason Osborne has been a vocal proponent of legalization. However, Governor-elect Ayotte has come out against legalizing recreational marijuana, arguing it would have a negative impact on Granite Staters’ quality of life. For this reason among others, legalizing cannabis use for recreational purposes would be an uphill battle. It will still be one that many legislators are willing to fight, though, with some favoring state-run marijuana sales and others preferring a free-market approach.

Licensing reform

Gov. Sununu was a proponent of cutting red tape around licensing requirements in New Hampshire. If Governor-elect Ayotte does choose to continue along the “Sununu Path,” it stands to reason this may be a priority for her, too. This could impact a wide range of industries, ranging from healthcare to the skilled trades.

Challenges and Opportunities

Next year, New Hampshire legislators will be tasked with crafting the next state budget. This comes as millions of dollars in federal pandemic relief money finally expire. The Interest and Dividends tax will also be gone, drying up another source of state tax dollars. Therefore, legislators will have to find revenue elsewhere if they want to keep current spending levels where they are. This is sure to mean some tough decisions, especially given Ayotte’s aforementioned promise not to impose new taxes.

Clearly, this year’s election results will be a boon to conservative causes and business interests in New Hampshire. However, Governor-elect Ayotte has promised to reach across the aisle to Democratic lawmakers as she serves her term in office. Therefore, we see opportunities to advance policy on a wide variety of fronts in the coming years.